The Russian economy faces significant challenges as it approaches the new year. Despite efforts by President Vladimir Putin to tackle high inflation, the situation appears to be worsening, particularly in sectors crucial to the country’s financial stability. Recent warnings indicate a potential wave of insolvencies, particularly in industries vital to Russia’s economic framework and its ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Currently, inflation in Russia stands at a concerning 9.3 percent, a figure highlighted by Putin during a recent press conference where he described it as an alarming signal. Compounding this issue is the depreciation of the ruble, which has further exacerbated inflationary pressures. In response, the Central Bank of Russia has implemented a series of interest rate hikes, which have now brought the benchmark rate to 21 percent. This strategy aims to curb consumer and business borrowing, thereby reducing demand and alleviating inflationary stress.
Analysts predict that the Central Bank may announce additional rate increases before the end of 2024, although it has opted to maintain the current rate for now. Nevertheless, the high-interest environment is creating considerable financing challenges for many businesses across the country.
A report from the Russian news agency Interfax has indicated a troubling trend: payment defaults are spreading throughout the economy. Between July and September, approximately 19 percent of large and medium-sized enterprises experienced payment delays, while the rate was even higher–25 percent–for smaller businesses.
Even leading economists within Putin’s circle are expressing concern over the prevailing economic conditions. Igor Setschin, the CEO of Rosneft, criticized the Central Bank’s financial policies in a recent quarterly report, arguing that the interest rate hikes have negatively impacted both financing costs for his company and for its suppliers, leading to reduced profits.
One of the sectors under the most pressure is retail. The Russian Association of Shopping Centers has raised alarms, claiming that over 200 shopping centers are at risk of insolvency due to soaring financing costs. Reports suggest that nearly a quarter of all shopping centers in the country face closure in 2025. Furthermore, the rise of online retail platforms in Russia is intensifying competition, adding additional strain to brick-and-mortar stores.
Another critical area affected by the economic downturn is the defense industry. Payment defaults and escalating financing costs are disrupting supply chains for many defense contractors. Western sanctions have also restricted access to essential components necessary for the production of high-quality military equipment. Additionally, a shortage of skilled labor is further complicating matters.
According to data submitted by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development to parliament, the growth of the sector categorized as ‘other transport systems and equipment’ is projected to plummet from 30.2 percent in 2023 to a mere five percent in the upcoming year.
In a stark warning issued in late October, Sergei Chemezov, a close ally of Putin and head of the state-owned defense corporation Rostec, indicated that if prices continue to remain at current levels, a significant number of companies could face bankruptcy. This scenario could force Russia to limit its arms exports.
The defense industry is increasingly critical for the Russian government, which is investing heavily in military capabilities. Reports suggest that defense spending in Russia could reach its highest levels since the Cold War by 2025. However, doubts remain about the sustainability of such extensive military expenditures in the context of Russia’s broader economic challenges.
The political landscape in Germany is preparing for the forthcoming Bundestag elections scheduled for February 2025, with major parties reaching a consensus on a Fairness Pact aimed at fostering a respectful and equitable electoral environment. The agreement has been established among key political entities including the SPD, CDU, CSU, Greens, FDP, and the Left Party.
This pact is particularly significant as it comes at a time when the election campaign is expected to be intense and competitive. The parties have collectively committed to refrain from personal attacks and derogatory remarks regarding the private or professional lives of their opponents. Respectful discourse is emphasized as a cornerstone of this electoral process.
Furthermore, the agreement explicitly denounces the spread of misinformation, commonly referred to as ‘fake news’. The parties have pledged to avoid utilizing any deliberately misleading information for campaign purposes, even if such information originates from third parties not directly affiliated with them. The commitment extends to the use of fake identities and accounts, ensuring that political messages will be clearly attributed either through identifiable party logos or specific accounts used for distribution.
In addition to maintaining integrity in their messaging, the parties have also assured mutual respect during on-the-ground campaign activities. This includes a commitment to refrain from any acts of violence against campaigners, including during the installation of campaign posters and the operation of campaign stalls. The agreement stipulates that the destruction or alteration of political opponents’ posters is strictly prohibited.
As the electoral campaign increasingly shifts towards digital platforms, the parties have recognized the importance of conducting a fair digital campaign as well. The use of advanced technologies such as deepfakes has been explicitly ruled out, with the parties agreeing not to misrepresent their opponents through manipulated media. Any content generated using artificial intelligence must be transparent and clearly labeled to avoid misleading the electorate.
This Fairness Pact represents a proactive approach by Germany’s political parties to ensure that the upcoming elections are conducted in an environment of mutual respect and integrity. By addressing potential issues such as misinformation and personal attacks, the agreement aims to create a more trustworthy and fair political discourse leading up to the elections.
Germany’s government on Wednesday approved a draft bill to speed up military procurement as Berlin moves to build up its armed forces in the face of wavering US commitment to European security.
The plans would make it easier for defence firms to receive advance payments from the state to start production sooner, Defence Minister Boris Pistorius told journalists.
Contracts worth less than 443,000 euros will also be exempt from the full procurement process, up from a current limit of 15,000 euros, Pistorius said.
The threshold will rise to one million euros for construction projects, he added.
He said the proposed bill represented a “quantum leap” for Germany’s armed forces, unblocking progress on about 12,000 procurement processes.
The changes will address the “jumble of regulations” that hindered “quickly building up Germany’s defence readiness”, he added.
Presenting the bill alongside Pistorius, Economy Minister Katherina Reiche said Germany needed to become “technologically and industrially stronger than potential aggressors”.
“That is how we preserve peace,” Reiche added.
Berlin has rushed to rearm itself following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, accelerating that process after US President Donald Trump urged Europe to take more responsibility for its own defence.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz has vowed to build Europe’s “strongest conventional army” to counter a perceived threat from Moscow.
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That represents a radical shift in a country with strong pacifist traditions due to its Nazi past.
READ ALSO: Military service ‘could be made mandatory’ says German Defence Minister
Spending on Germany’s armed forces is expected to reach 162 billion euros in 2029, more than triple Germany’s defence budget before the war in Ukraine.To become law, the cabinet’s draft bill still needs to be passed by Germany’s parliament.
Angebote im Juli Bluetooth Sport-Kopfhörer für 26 Euro statt 130 Euro: Das sind die Top-Deals am Mittwoch
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