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Impending End of Key Gas Agreement Raises Concerns for Europe

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Mon 23rd Dec, 2024

As 2024 draws to a close, a significant gas supply contract between Ukraine and Russia is set to expire, prompting concerns across Europe. This agreement, which has facilitated the transit of Russian gas through Ukrainian pipelines to European markets for the past five years, will not be renewed, according to statements from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. This decision, motivated by ongoing Russian aggression, has sparked panic among several European nations.

Countries such as Moldova have already declared a state of emergency, while Hungary has issued warnings about a potential energy crisis. In response to the looming cessation of gas deliveries, the Slovak Prime Minister, Robert Fico, recently traveled to Moscow to discuss the future of Russian gas supplies to Slovakia and other parts of Europe.

During their meeting, Fico reportedly received assurances from Russian President Vladimir Putin that Russia is prepared to continue supplying gas to the West, including Slovakia. However, the feasibility of this arrangement appears questionable, given Ukraine’s refusal to allow any further Russian gas transit after January 1, 2025.

With Ukraine’s decision to halt gas supplies, affected countries are now scrambling to identify alternative sources. Azerbaijan has emerged as a possible substitute supplier, although no formal agreements have been established yet. Recent reports indicated that negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv regarding a new deal involving Azerbaijan had collapsed.

One potential solution for maintaining gas transit through Ukraine involves a ‘swap’ agreement with the Azerbaijani state-owned energy company SOCAR. Under this arrangement, SOCAR could enter into a contract with Ukraine to transport Azerbaijani gas through Ukrainian pipelines instead of Russian gas. However, analysts have expressed skepticism about whether Azerbaijan possesses the capacity to supply the approximately 16 billion cubic meters that Russia has historically sent through these pipelines.

For this swap to be viable, Azerbaijan would need to negotiate with Russia to exchange specific volumes of gas at the Ukrainian-Russian border, thereby allowing Russian gas to be labeled as originating from Azerbaijan. This complex arrangement could potentially involve Azerbaijan selling its gas to Russia before it is sent through Ukraine, only for Russia to buy back the same amount at the border.

The economic implications of the impending gas supply cessation are significant. According to research from the think tank Bruegel, Ukraine’s transit revenues from Russian gas amounted to $1.2 billion in 2022, dropping to $800 million in 2023, representing a mere 0.5 percent of the country’s GDP. In contrast, Russia stands to face much larger financial losses, estimated at $6.5 billion annually, if Ukraine halts all gas transit to Europe.

As the deadline approaches, the focus remains on finding solutions to maintain energy stability in Europe while navigating the complex geopolitical landscape shaped by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the region’s reliance on Russian gas.

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Konflikte: Bericht: Neun Soldaten bei Kämpfen in Kolumbien getötet

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Hinter dem Angriff dürfte eine Splittergruppe der Farc-Rebellen stecken. (Archivbild) Foto: Juan B Diaz/AP

Konflikte
Bericht: Neun Soldaten bei Kämpfen in Kolumbien getötet






Trotz des Friedensvertrags mit der größten Guerillaorganisation kontrollieren Splittergruppen noch immer Teile Kolumbiens. In den vergangenen Wochen griffen sie gezielt Soldaten und Polizisten an.

Bei Gefechten zwischen mutmaßlichen Rebellen sind Medienberichten zufolge im Südosten von Kolumbien mindestens neun Soldaten ums Leben gekommen. Rund zehn weitere Militärs seien nach den Kämpfen im Department Guaviare von den Guerilleros verschleppt worden, berichtete der Fernsehsender RCN unter Berufung auf die Streitkräfte.

In der Region sind verschiedene Splittergruppen der ehemaligen Guerillaorganisation Farc aktiv, die den Friedensvertrag 2016 nicht mittrugen und im Untergrund blieben. Sie sind häufig in Drogenhandel, illegalen Bergbau und Schutzgelderpressung verwickelt. 

“Ich trage die Verantwortung für das Leben jedes jungen Menschen in den Sicherheitskräften, und ich möchte, dass sie alle gesund und munter zu ihren Familien zurückkehren. In Kolumbien sollte niemand durch die Hand eines anderen sterben”, schrieb Präsident Gustavo Petro, der als junger Mann selbst einer Rebellenorganisation angehörte, auf der Nachrichtenplattform X. “Ich setze mich dafür ein, dass keine kolumbianische Mutter jemals wieder ein totes Kind entgegennehmen muss. Dieser Schmerz, der ein nationaler Schmerz ist, muss aufhören.”

In zwei Wochen 18 tote Soldaten und Polizisten in Kolumbien

In den vergangenen zwei Wochen wurden laut einem Bericht des Rundfunksenders Caracol bei verschiedenen Angriffen in dem südamerikanischen Land insgesamt 18 Soldaten und Polizisten getötet. “Wir verurteilen aufs Schärfste die gezielte Ermordung unserer Polizei- und Militärangehörigen, die sogar angegriffen werden, wenn sie außer Dienst und wehrlos sind”, schrieb Verteidigungsminister Pedro Sánchez auf der Nachrichtenplattform X.

Kolumbien litt 52 Jahre lang unter einem Bürgerkrieg zwischen linken Rebellen, rechten Paramilitärs und dem Militär. 220.000 Menschen kamen ums Leben, Millionen wurden vertrieben. Zwar hat sich die Sicherheitslage nach dem 2016 zwischen der Regierung und der damals größten Rebellengruppe Farc geschlossenen Friedensabkommen verbessert, allerdings werden noch immer Teile des südamerikanischen Landes von illegalen Gruppen kontrolliert.

dpa

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Zahl der Toten nach Explosion im Iran steigt auf 14

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Zahl der Toten nach Explosion im Iran steigt auf 14

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Fairness Agreement Reached Among Six Parties Ahead of 2025 Bundestag Elections

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Mon 23rd Dec, 2024

In anticipation of a potentially contentious election campaign for the Bundestag in 2025, six political parties in Germany have established a Fairness Agreement aimed at promoting respectful discourse and minimizing personal attacks during the campaign period. The parties involved in this agreement include the SPD, CDU, CSU, Greens, FDP, and the Left Party, while the AfD and BSW have opted not to participate.

The agreement comes in response to escalating tensions highlighted by recent heated exchanges regarding Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s leadership. Concerns arose over the potential for fierce confrontations during the upcoming campaign, particularly following statements made by Scholz and his CDU challenger, Friedrich Merz, which included derogatory remarks and accusations.

Under the terms of the Fairness Agreement, signatory parties have committed to avoiding personal insults and derogatory comments directed at one another, focusing instead on constructive debate. The agreement explicitly prohibits the dissemination of misinformation, affirming that parties will refrain from utilizing false information for campaign purposes, regardless of its origin.

Furthermore, the parties have vowed to maintain a peaceful atmosphere during the campaign, promising not to resort to violence against campaigners or damage competitors’ campaign materials. The protection of political posters and campaign sites is emphasized, with a clear directive against the destruction or alteration of such materials.

As part of their commitment to a fair election process, the parties have also agreed to ensure that their digital campaigning adheres to ethical standards. This includes a ban on the use of deepfake technology to misrepresent opponents’ statements and a requirement for clear identification of any content generated using artificial intelligence.

The Fairness Agreement seeks to foster an environment of accountability and transparency as parties gear up for the upcoming election. By eliminating the potential for misleading narratives and encouraging respectful competition, the signatories aim to uphold democratic principles throughout the electoral process.

As the political landscape evolves, the adherence to such agreements will play a critical role in shaping the tone and integrity of the election campaign leading up to the Bundestag elections.

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