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How Europe has shifted as it gears up for the Trump era

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How Europe has shifted as it gears up for the Trump era

Barely a month ago, a phone call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin sent an unmistakable message across the Atlantic: the United States may not be there forever to keep Europe safe from an aggressive Russia.

By the time the pair spoke again this week, a whirlwind of diplomacy had seen Europe juggle alliances and rewrite long-held rules — with a show of assertiveness not always associated with the Old Continent.


“The advent of the Trump administration has given history a shove, and concentrated minds about what needs to be done,” summed up Ian Lesser of the German Marshall Fund think tank.

Here is a look at the shifts taking place — and what might lie ahead — as the 27-nation European Union holds on Thursday its third summit in six weeks aimed at ramping up its defences.

New actors in Europe

From Brussels to Paris to London and back to Brussels — the frenzy of diplomacy sparked by Trump’s outreach to Moscow over Ukraine has blurred a number of lines.

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Back-to-back meetings have involved sub-groups of countries from in and outside the EU, and for the bloc’s formal talks, “likeminded” partners from Britain to Canada have been kept in the loop, as they will be again this week.

More often than not, NATO’s secretary general has joined in, intent on acting as a bridge with the new US administration.

The shifting formats highlight the challenge posed by Hungary’s Viktor Orban, who is friendly to both Trump and Russia and has repeatedly held up unanimous EU action on Ukraine.

For the second time running, leaders expect to settle in Brussels on a 26-nation statement to sidestep what a senior EU official termed the “strategic divergence” with Orban over the conflict.

From big tent to close-knit huddle, the flexibility also reflects the shape of the “coalition of the willing” emerging around Ukraine, and the complexities of bolstering Europe’s defences longer-term.

“It’s clear that a Europe that takes defence, not just more seriously, but more autonomously, is going to want to include new actors including Britain, Norway but also Turkey,” said Lesser, who also sees a chance of a “stronger European pole” within NATO emerging in times ahead.

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Old friends

Britain’s move back towards Europe is one of the most striking consequences of America’s disengagement, even as a formal bid to rekindle ties post-Brexit showed signs of floundering.

Old gripes were bubbling up again between London and some European capitals accusing it of cherry-picking in its “reset” push — and EU insiders still believe any broad agreement will be difficult.

But British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has emerged as a key player in European efforts to keep the United States engaged, secure a hoped-for ceasefire in Ukraine, and get serious about the continent’s own security.

“This has really helped turn a page with the United Kingdom,” said Camille Grand, policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “Both sides are realising that, when it comes down to it, we can come together around the things that truly matter.”

In the short term, Grand still predicts a tussle over “who gets access to Europe’s cash for rearmament”, with “buy European” provisions baked into a 150-billion-euro ($163-billion) loan programme presented this week.

But Britain could come in on the project if it signs a security deal with the EU.

And with Starmer and France’s Emmanuel Macron working in lockstep on a Ukraine coalition, that bolsters the case of those seeking closer EU-UK cooperation on security at least.

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Rules be damned?

The prospect of losing US security protection has also triggered a minor earthquake involving the EU’s sacrosanct budget deficit rules.

Brussels now wants the fiscal rules put on hold for four years to unlock potential defence spending worth 650 billion euros, to nods from countries who would once have howled in protest.

Calls to go further and overhaul those same rules have emanated from historically reluctant spender Germany — itself tearing up decades of precedent by backing a defence spending “bazooka” pushed by leader-in-waiting Friedrich Merz.

More radical still, Merz has called for talks with France and Britain on a shared nuclear deterrent, while Poland’s Donald Tusk has shown interest in accessing atomic weapons.

“Many taboos have been shattered in recent weeks,” said Lesser, on everything from deterrence to finance.

The caveat? Influential Germany and the Netherlands remain firmly opposed to bigger EU joint borrowing on the scale deployed to overcome the Covid pandemic.

“Right now, it’s not there,” the bloc’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas acknowledged Wednesday. “But is it completely off the table? I don’t think so.”

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Which European countries currently have Schengen border checks in place?

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Which European countries currently have Schengen border checks in place?

The borderless Schengen travel area recently celebrated its 40th anniversary but many countries currently have border checks reinstated. Here’s what travellers should expect.

The borderless Schengen area guarantees free movement to tens of millions of EU citizens, residents and visitors.

It recently celebrated its 40th anniversary, and after originally starting with just five countries signing a convention pledging to “gradually abolish” internal borders checks and allow people to travel around freely, today the Schengen area includes 25 of the 27 EU member states and the four countries of the European Free Trade Association (Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland).

According to the EU Council website, the Schengen area covers over 4.5 million square kilometres with a total population of almost 450 million people. Every day around 3.5 million people cross the Schengen internal borders for work, study or visits, and almost 1.7 million people reside in one Schengen country while working in another.

Under the Schengen Borders Code, which sets the rules governing the Schengen area, internal border checks can be temporarily restored where there is a “serious threat to public policy or internal security”, from the organisation of a major sport event to a terrorist attack.

These checks should be a “last resort” measure, should be limited to the period “strictly necessary” to respond to the threat and not last more than 6 months. In exceptional circumstances, internal border controls can be reintroduced for a maximum of two years.

Several members of the bloc have reintroduced temporary border controls in recent years. The full list of countries that currently have controls in place is available here.

READ ALSO: Schengen hits 40 – What problems lie ahead for Europe’s border-free zone?

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According to European Commission information, the following European countries have reintroduced temporary border checks for the following dates:

  • Spain – 27/06/2025 – 05/07/2025 – IV United National International Conference on Financing for Development in Sevilla (30 June – 3 July 2025); land borders with France and Portugal, internal air borders of Alicante, Almería, Barcelona, Bilbao, Girona, Granada, Madrid, Málaga, Murcia, Sevilla and Valencia; internal maritime borders of Barcelona, Málaga and Palma de Mallorca.

 

  • Italy – 19/06/2025 – 18/12/2025 – Continued threat of terrorist infiltrations into migratory flows along the Western Balkan route, ongoing crises in the Middle East and Ukraine, high level of irregular migration including a strong presence of criminal smuggling and trafficking networks, and heightened security risks associated with the Universal Jubilee of the Catholic Church; land borders with Slovenia.
  • Italy – 19/12/2024 – 18/06/2025 – Continued threat of terrorist infiltrations into migratory flows along the Mediterranean route and the Balkan route, ongoing crises in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, increasing migratory pressures and the risk of terrorist infiltration, risk of violent actions against Israeli citizens and terrorist activity, and heightened security risks associated with the Universal Jubilee of the Catholic Church; land borders with Slovenia.

 

  • Austria – 12/05/2025 – 11/11/2025 – Threats associated with the continued high levels of irregular migration and migrant smuggling across Austria’s southern borders, as well as the strain on the asylum reception system and basic services, Russia’s ongoing war of aggression against Ukraine and the security situation in the Middle East, intensifying the threat posed by Islamist extremism and terrorism; land borders with Hungary and Slovenia.
  • Austria – 16/04/2025 – 15/10/2025 – Threats associated with irregular migration, such as via the Balkan routes (including expected migratory pressure), as well as the strain on the asylum reception system and basic services, Russia’s ongoing war of aggression against Ukraine, and the security situation in the Middle East aggravated by terrorist groups; land borders with Slovakia and Czechia.

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  • Denmark – 12/05/2025 – 11/11/2025 – Serious threats to public policy and internal security posed by possible sabotage actions from Russia, as well as continuous terrorism-related events and organised crime, notably, tied to the Israeli-Hamas conflict and driven by radicalisation from groups such as Islamic State and Al-Qaida. These threats include potential attacks on Jewish and Israeli targets; land and sea borders with Germany but may extend to all internal borders.

 

  • Norway – 12/05/2025 – 11/11/2025 – General threat aimed at the energy sector, threats of sabotage posed by the Russian intelligence service, as well as to increase infrastructure protection; ports with ferry connections to the Schengen area

 

  • Sweden – 12/05/2025 – 11/11/2025 – Serious threats to public policy and internal security arise from organised cross-border crime and terrorism, highlighted by attacks involving military-grade explosives against foreign institutions and the public, including the involvement of foreign state actors leveraging criminal gangs, coupled with persistent threats from violent Islamist groups and individuals; all internal borders (land, air, and sea) and land borders with Denmark.

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  • France – 01/05/2025 – 31/10/2025 – Serious threats to public policy, public order, and internal security posed by persistent jihadist threats, a rise in antisemitic attacks, the growing criminal networks facilitating irregular migration and smuggling, and irregular migration flows towards the Franco-British border that risk infiltration by radicalised individuals, as well as the irregular crossings on the Channel and North Sea borders, along with rising violence among migrants, particularly in northern coastal areas such as Dunkirk and Calais, leading to tense and perilous situations for both migrants and law enforcement; all internal borders (land, air, and sea) with Belgium, Germany, Luxembourg, the Swiss Confederation, Spain, and Italy.

 

  • Germany – 16/03/2025 – 15/09/2025 – Serious threats to public security and order posed by continued high levels of irregular migration and migrant smuggling, and the strain on the asylum reception system. The impact of the global security situation (including Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and the situation in the Middle East) on security and migration; land borders with France, Luxembourg, Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark, Austria, Switzerland, Czechia, and Poland.

READ ALSO: How long can Germany keep its border checks in place?

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  • Slovenia – 22/06/2025 – 21/12/2025 – Serious threats to public policy and internal security posed by a high level of terrorist threats and organised crime, including human smuggling and arms trafficking, the risk of terrorist infiltrations into migratory flows via the Western Balkans, hybrid threats from the Russian Federation and Belarus, as well as instability in the EU’s neighbourhood, including Russia’s ongoing aggression against Ukraine and instability following the fall of Assad’s regime in Syria; land borders with Croatia and Hungary.

 

  • The Netherlands – 09/06/2025 – 08/12/2025 – Serious threat to public policy caused by high levels of asylum applications, irregular migration, migrant smuggling, and secondary movements, leading to an overburdening of the migration system in general and the asylum system in particular, as well as pressure on public services, including housing, health care and education; land and air borders with Belgium and Germany.

 

  • Bulgaria – 01/01/2025 – 30/06/2025 – Security risks related to illegal migration, including smuggling activities, as well as migratory pressure caused by ongoing crises in the Middle East and Africa, particularly in Syria, Afghanistan, and Gaza/Lebanon; land borders with Romania.

 

  • Slovenia – 22/12/2024 – 21/06/2025 – Serious threats to public policy and internal security posed by continuous terrorism-related events and organised crime, including smuggling and arms trafficking, the risk of terrorist infiltrations into migratory flows via the Western Balkans, and radicalised Islamists potentially entering European cities during the holiday season, as well as hybrid threats from the Russian Federation, Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine, Russian nationals attempting to illegally enter Slovenia; land borders with Croatia and Hungary.

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Wie sich das Kräfteverhältnis in Nahost verändert

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Wie sich das Kräfteverhältnis in Nahost verändert

Israel warnt seit Jahren vor dem Atomprogramm des Irans und sieht sich dadurch in seiner Existenz bedroht. Doch auch die aktuelle militärische Eskalation birgt große Gefahren für die ganze Region – denn es drohen Vergeltungsschläge. Daher bemühen sich derzeit zahlreiche Staaten, darunter auch Deutschland, und Organisationen um Deeskalation.

Die weitere Schwächung des Mullah-Regimes könnte zu einem neuen Kräfteverhältnis im Nahen und Mittleren Osten führen – wenn der Iran erstmals seit fast fünfzig Jahren deutlich zurückgedrängt wird und sich neue Machtzentren entwickeln. Zur Erinnerung: Der Iran hat zu Zeiten der islamischen Revolution 1979 auf eine Verbreitung der eigenen Ideologie gesetzt. Über Proxys (Stellvertreter) wie schiitisch-islamische Milizen sollten Glaubensbrüder in den Ländern der arabischen Halbinsel dazu gebracht werden, die Revolution der Mullahs weiterzutragen.

Teheran hatte die Vernichtung Israels zur „heiligen Pflicht“ erklärt

Damals erklärte Teheran auch die Lösung der Palästinenserfrage – durch die Vernichtung Israels – zur heiligen Pflicht. Dabei ging es den schiitischen Machthabern insbesondere auch darum, den sunnitischen arabischen Herrscherhäusern, insbesondere Saudi-Arabien, die Rolle der Wächter der heiligen islamischen Stätten streitig zu machen. Es geht also um Mekka und Medina, aber auch um Jerusalem.

Die Hamas setzte auf die Unterstützung der Proxys des Irans, als die radikal-islamische Gruppe am 7. Oktober 2023 den Terrorangriff auf Israel verübte – und bekam Waffenhilfe von der libanesischen Hisbollah und den Huthi-Milizen im Jemen. Israel schlug massiv zurück: Hisbollah-Chef Hassan Nasrallah ist inzwischen tot. In Syrien kam es, auch wegen der Schwächung der Hisbollah, zum Sturz des mit Teheran verbündeten Assad-Regimes.

Schwierig ist die Lage derweil für den jordanischen König, der sich im Spagat üben muss. Weil er einerseits hilft, Israel bei iranischen Drohnenangriffen mit Abwehrraketen zu schützen, andererseits dadurch immer mehr Rückhalt in der eigenen Bevölkerung verliert. Auch Ägypten leidet: Ohnehin schon wirtschaftlich stark gebeutelt, fließt gerade wegen der Huthi-Angriffe auf Schiffe im Roten Meer deutlich weniger Geld aus einer der Haupteinkommensquellen, dem Suez-Kanal, in die Staatskasse.

Profitieren könnte Saudi-Arabien

Saudi-Arabien hat die aktuellen Angriffe Israels auf den Iran als Verletzung der Souveränität und der Sicherheit des Iran und als Bruch von internationalem Recht verurteilt. Dennoch könnte das ölreiche Land am Ende gestärkt aus der eskalierenden Lage hervorgehen. Dass Riad als politischer Akteur wichtiger geworden ist, war bereits durch den Besuch von US-Präsident Donald Trump in dem Königreich deutlich geworden.

„Es gibt eine neue Ordnung in der arabischen Welt. Und Saudi-Arabien ist das neue Gravitationszentrum“, sagte Philipp Dienstbier, Leiter des Regionalprogramms Golf-Staaten der Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, unserer Redaktion. „Auch Katar und die Vereinigten Arabischen Emirate sind deutlich wichtiger geworden.“

Mit Blick auf deutsche Vermittlungsbemühungen im Nahen und Mittleren Osten betonte er: „Deutschland sollte den Golfstaaten – anders als die ehemalige Bundesregierung – nicht mit erhobenem Zeigefinger, sondern pragmatisch und an unseren Interessen ausgerichtet gegenübertreten.“

Die Saudis fordern eine „glaubwürdige Perspektive“ für einen Palästinenser-Staat

Saudi-Arabien ist an einer Deeskalation in der Region interessiert und lehnt eine weitere direkte Konfrontation zwischen Israel und dem Iran daher ab. „Das Land will seine Wirtschaft transformieren und vom Erdöl wegkommen. Darauf liegt der Fokus“, erläuterte Philipp Dienstbier.

So arbeite Riad seit 2022 daran, alte Konflikte beizulegen: „Damals wurde der Waffenstillstand mit den Huthis vereinbart. Später gab es die von China vermittelte Annäherung an den Erzfeind Iran. Die Saudis setzen auf starke Staaten in der Region, die für Stabilität sorgen.“

Zu einer Neuordnung im Nahen und Mittleren Osten gehört auch eine Zukunftsperspektive für die Palästinenser, angefangen mit einem Waffenstillstand im Gazakrieg. „Für Saudi-Arabien ist für eine Normalisierung zwischen dem Königreich und Israel die Lösung der Palästinenserfrage der notwendige erste Schritt“, sagte Philipp Dienstbier. „Dazu gehört, wie es Riad formuliert, eine glaubwürdige und unumkehrbare Perspektive für einen palästinensischen Staat.“

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Dating in Schweden: Hier machen oft Frauen den ersten Schritt

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Dating in Schweden: Hier machen oft Frauen den ersten Schritt

Sind Schweden wirklich kühl? Die Beziehungs-Expertin Emilie Ebbis Roslund über Flirtmethoden, feministische Männer und die schwedische Definition eines Dates.

In Israel suchen Singles jemanden, mit dem sie in den Bunker können, in Indien hilft die Kupplerin beim Dating. Wie sich Menschen kennenlernen, unterscheidet sich von Land zu Land. Der stern geht in der Serie “Das Lieben der Anderen” der Frage nach, auf welche Art Menschen in aller Welt ihr Herz vergeben. Und wie sich das zwischen Traditionen und Moderne verändert. In dieser ersten Folge führt der Dating-Atlas nach Schweden. 

Frau Roslund, wenn man in Schweden in eine Bar geht und jemanden kennenlernen will – wie stellt man das an? 

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